Open Data Insights

Century of Fasnacht weather data challenges divine intervention belief.

Published: March 1, 2026 · Period: 2026-03-01

An analysis of 100 years of weather data for Basel's Fasnacht reveals a warming trend and frequent dry spells, but it does not support the local belief in consistently pleasant weather, as temperatures are highly variable and overcast skies are common.
Century of Fasnacht weather data challenges divine intervention belief.

Century of Fasnacht weather data challenges divine intervention belief.

Photo: Azimronnie, Carnival de Basel, on Wikipedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

There is a saying in Basel: “God must be a Basel citizen.” It reflects the playful belief that the weather during Fasnacht is usually pleasant, as if higher powers were looking after the celebration. But is that really true? We analysed 100 years of weather data to find out.

During the past 100 years, Fasnacht was not observed 12 times due to the world wars and the COVID-19 pandemic. The weather for the reference year 2026 was warm. The average temperature was 11.4°C, with a minimum of 3.1°C and a maximum of 17.3°C. Total precipitation was 0.5 mm, with rain falling on one day. There was one clear day. This pleasant weather supports the hypothesis of divine intervention, but the rest of the article will analyse whether this is true for a longer time period.

Over the past century, the long-term average temperature for Fasnacht is 2.9°C. The coldest year was 1956 with an average of -9.8°C, while the warmest was 2003 at 11.6°C. The data shows a clear warming trend, with recent decades being significantly milder than earlier ones. The reference year 2026, at 11.4°C, was well above the long-term average. These trends are visualised in Figure 1: temperature at Carnival in the last 100 years, while Figure 2 shows precipitation. Table 1 lists the years with the most extreme weather phenomena.

The average total rainfall during Fasnacht is 4.5 mm. Dry years, with zero precipitation, occurred in 44% of all observed years. The wettest year was 1970 with 24.3 mm of rain. No strong long-term trend in precipitation is evident. The long-term average number of clear days is 0.7, indicating generally overcast conditions. This mixed picture of frequent dry spells but overall cloudiness partially contradicts the popular belief of consistently fine weather.

Measurable snowfall occurred in 17 years. The most significant snowfall was in 2006 with a maximum snow cover of 40 cm. Snow was more frequent in earlier decades, with a visible long-term decline in recent years. In conclusion, while Fasnacht often avoids heavy rain and snow has become rarer, the data does not support the saying of consistently good weather, as temperatures are highly variable and overcast skies are common.

Table 1: Extreme Weather Record Years for the Carnival of Basel

Phenomenon	Year	Value
Maximum Average Temperature °C	2003	13.8
Maximumn Precipitation mm	1958	22.2
Maximum Snow Amount cm	2006	40.0
Maximum Temperature °C	2003	22.0
Minimum Average Temperature °C	1956	-14.2
Minimum Temperature °C	1956	-21.3

Figure 1: Temperature during the last 100 Years of Fasnacht

Figure 2: Precipitation during the Fasnacht of Basel in the last 100 Years

Data source: Tägliche Klimadaten der NBCN-Station Basel-Binningen

🤖 This text was generated with the assistance of AI. All quantitative statements are derived directly from the dataset listed under Data Source.

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Century of Fasnacht weather data challenges divine intervention belief.

Table 1: Extreme Weather Record Years for the Carnival of Basel

Figure 1: Temperature during the last 100 Years of Fasnacht

Figure 2: Precipitation during the Fasnacht of Basel in the last 100 Years