Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined fossil fuel composed of hydrocarbons. It serves as a primary energy source and a critical input for fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as for a wide range of petrochemical products. The two main global benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which reflects U.S. market conditions, and Brent crude, the leading international reference sourced from the North Sea. Oil prices both influence and are influenced by political developments: they affect inflation, fiscal stability, and trade balances, while policies, conflicts, and production agreements can directly alter supply and price levels. Learn more

In July 2026, crude oil markets experienced a sharp upward trajectory characterized by significant intra-month volatility. As shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, Brent crude opened the month at $68.68 per barrel and surged to close at $96.95, representing a dramatic absolute increase of $28.27 and a percentage gain of over 41 percent. The monthly average for Brent was $83.92, with prices swinging between a low of $68.68 and a high of $100.31, resulting in a price range of $31.63. WTI followed a similar but less extreme pattern, starting at $69.60 and ending at $86.16, for a gain of nearly 24 percent. Its average price was $81.40, with a narrower range of $22.14 between its low of $69.60 and high of $91.74. The volatility coefficient for Brent was 13.6 percent, notably higher than WTI's 9.0 percent, underscoring the more pronounced price swings in the international benchmark.

Compared to June 2026, July marked a stark reversal in market direction. The previous month had seen a steep decline, with Brent falling from $98.29 to $71.59 and WTI dropping from $95.96 to $71.87. In July, both benchmarks not only recovered but Brent exceeded its June starting point. The average price for Brent decreased slightly from $84.97 in June to $83.92 in July, while WTI's average fell from $84.96 to $81.40. However, this marginal decline in averages masks the complete turnaround in trend, as the market shifted from a pronounced sell-off to a powerful rally. Volatility remained elevated in both months, with Brent's coefficient of variation edging up from 13.1 percent to 13.6 percent, while WTI's volatility subsided from 12.2 percent to 9.0 percent.

Positioning July 2026 within the last twelve months reveals it as a period of extreme price action and a return to levels not seen since mid-2025. The monthly average for Brent of $83.92 and WTI of $81.40 are among the highest in the trailing year, surpassed only by June 2026. The intra-month peak for Brent of $100.31 was the highest price recorded in the entire twelve-month span, while the trough of $68.68 was near the lower end of the annual range. This month stands out for its exceptional volatility; Brent's coefficient of variation of 13.6 percent is more than double that of any other month in the past year, indicating a structural shift from the relatively calmer trading conditions that prevailed for much of 2025. The data suggests that July 2026 was an anomalous month, breaking decisively from the subdued, range-bound patterns observed since the previous autumn.